 Halifax (HRM) Residential Market Statistic Update For Week of June 12th - June 19th 2014 (Previous weeks numbers in brackets) *Last year this week New Listings: 490 (578, 616, 542, 592) *441 Sold: 168 (168, 154, 172, 133) *173 Sale To Listing Ratio: 34% (29%, 25%, 32%, 22%) *39% Listings that went conditional/pending: 159 (162, 174, 176, 158) Expired/Cancelled/Withdrawn: 96 (106, 227, 82, 79) *99 Total Active Halifax/Dartmouth Inventory: 5,717 (5,676, 5,569, 5,563, 5,483) *5,547 Active Single Family Home: 3,897 (3,861, 3795, 3,761, 3,703) *3,677 Average Single Family Home List Price: $303,555 ($300,326, $313,837, $314,449, $299,131) *281k Average Single Family Home Selling Price: $293,003 ($291,173, $302,548, $303,919, $289,648) *273k Average Days on Market Single Family Home: 84 (104, 78, 122, 96) *82 Active Condos: 545 (562, 560, 554, 553) *447 Average Condo Listing Price: $250,893 ($252,998, $254,277, $240,353, $254,175) *251k Average Condo Selling Price: $241,033 ($243,573, $244,455, $243,386, $243,612) *145k Average Days on Market Condos: 77 (69, 70, 117, 90) *88 Active Vacant Lots: 934 (928, 897, 928) Halifax/Dartmouth Absorption Rate (weeks): 152 (145, 139, 137, 134) *35 MARKET RANT More big gains in most areas of the market this week. Both absorption rate and single family homes had hefty increases on the week, while values remained relatively unchanged. Sales to list ratio is up for the third consecutive week, and the average selling time hovers just under the three month mark for both products. Still, things seem very up and down this year overall, and the general market attitude is one of uncertainty and reluctance. The monthly market report is just around the corner so don't forget to stop in later on this week! NOTABLE NEWS Developments heating up across Halifax? This article outlines some of the more recent bids to develop some of our newest city projects. Halifax orders demolition for Bellevue Avenue eyesore. A demolition order has been approved for a partially built house in south-end Halifax, where construction was suspended after neighbours complained about the size of the building says this article. Halifax Regional Municipality is forging ahead with plans to pave gravel roads in Cow Bay despite property owners speaking out against the initiative, says this article. Wayne Bell said most residents in the rural area near Cole Harbour don’t want the roads paved, but the municipality has ignored them. WEEKLY ADOGTABLE Lily is a beautiful, 2 year old, 50lb pitbull looking for her forever home. Lily has had a very rough life and is looking to start a new one free from bars. She can be timid at first but warms up quickly and loves all people. She walks very well on leash, knows some basic commands, and is so smart, picking up on training extremely well! It is clear that Lily may have been abused in her past, yet she is happiest when someone is in the room with her; she is more than happy to lay on a dog bed or matt and doesn't feel the need to be on top of you constantly. Her ideal home would be with older children, simply so she feels comfortable in her new surroundings, one free from cats and dogs because she is very fearful of them and thus is reactive. Lily is spayed, vaccinated, microchipped, house trained, and kennel trained. To apply to adopt Lily, fill out an Adoption Application. This "Spicy Seniorita" is available through Buddy's Bully Rescue, a non profit rescue organization from Halifax, Nova Scotia. More info about her, other adoptable's looking for their furever home, and ways to help or donate can be found by clicking HERE.  VIEWPOINT REALTY
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Mark
6/20/2014 06:18:42 am
I predicted a month or so ago that the absorption rate would hit 3 years by the end of July. We are going to likely hit it next week. I can't believe we will be exceeding 3 years so soon and heading toward 4. I know you keep showing prices haven't fallen but I am sorry, when they fall they are going to fall hard.
Mike
6/20/2014 03:51:22 pm
I see the absorption rate is still increasing but if you read the blog from June last year you almost see the identical concerns and thoughts that we are seeing now. The fact is that the unfortunate part is that things aren't improving but basic market economics will ultimately prevail and what I predict happening is that the people who are trying to profit before the prices decline and those people who are just testing the market will start to pull out of the market vice dropping their prices and the market will eventually settle back to a new norm of very slow market movement without a huge price decline.
Mark
6/23/2014 03:43:25 am
Maybe Mike, but if you saw on CTV this weekend that beer sales in Nova Scotia are down a whopping 10% ( and also down in the other Maritime Provinces). There are a number of other indicators such as office vacancy rate in Halifax which is sky high and others that point to a structural problem, which is declining population and incomes are taking a toll on everything. Housing is just one factor, but I slightly disagree with you in comparing the absorption rate in June 2014 to June 2013. The big difference here is that last year it was at about 7 months of inventory. This year it is at 3 years. BIG difference.
Mike
6/23/2014 04:43:59 am
Although I definitely agree that spending in NS is down and there are a lot of vacancies both rental and commercial, the idea that the prices of houses will crash is not likely because regardless of the price, there still has to be someone willing to buy it. The lack of activity comparing sales per week y/y shows supports the idea that people are eventually just give up trying to sell and the idea of not giving the house away for free will override the desire to move up. In addition to that, people who are looking to move up won't be able to sell because to sacrifice their current house will mean they won't have the downpayment for the next. This market has been slow for two summers now. I don't forsee it getting any better any time soon but I don't see the price of houses crashing neither. People will just stop selling and settle for what they have.
Mark
6/23/2014 07:21:53 am
Good point. I actually agree with that assessment. With almost 6,000 homes on the market and about 160 selling each week the likelihood of selling your house is about 5% on any given week. That doesn't account for how your house is priced, where it is, etc. So you are right, with a complete lack of buyers people will simply give up or just list their house in perpetuity until someone comes by. The problem is here is that as more and more people do this (with no assumed change in buyer behavior or number of buyers) the absorption rate will climb and climb until serious pressure will be put on sellers as choice will be so plentiful. So you are right, probably no crash, but no buyers might be worse!
Mike
6/23/2014 04:49:15 am
Although I definitely agree that spending in NS is down and there are a lot of vacancies both rental and commercial, the idea that the prices of houses will crash is not likely because regardless of the price, there still has to be someone willing to buy it. The continued lack of activity comparing sales per week y/y shows supports the idea that people are eventually just give up trying to sell and the idea of not giving the house away for free will override the desire to move up. In addition to that, people who are looking to move up won't be able to sell because to sacrifice their current house will mean they won't have the downpayment for the next. This market has been slow for two summers now. I don't forsee it getting any better any time soon but I don't see the price of houses crashing neither. People will just stop selling and settle for what they have.
Jake
6/24/2014 05:38:39 am
I have to agree with Mark that prices will definitely be dropping significantly in the near future. There seems to be some stickiness in the reported average prices. This could be partially due to the fact that the lower end of the market is very slow and, with fewer sales numbers factored in, averages can be skewed. That being said, I have noticed that the sellers in my neighbourhood have been very stubborn with their prices. There are literally 5 almost identical units for sale down the street from me and they are all priced within $15k of each other. They have been on the market anywhere from 30-250 days. Not one of them has sold. Despite this, the only price drops have been 1-2% off of the original asking. Most of the owners have actually moved on to recently built larger homes and have left these properties vacant. Three of them have been put up for rent now as well. I don't think the people were expecting to be paying two mortgages for this long. The issue with trying to rent the properties out is that there are many other properties trying to find tenants right now as well. In short, there are too many properties for sale, and for rent. There are not enough buyers or renters! One of the property owners stopped by my house the other day (I rent), and offered his place to me for $300 less than I am currently paying for an similar unit. His is actually a little bit bigger. That is how cut throat it is getting out there. The reality is, a lot of these sellers do not have the luxury of just taking houses off of the market until the situation improves; they cannot afford to wait for the market to improve. With the poor state of the local economy now on everyone's mind and with an excess of units both for rent and for sale, house prices will have to drop significantly to resuscitate out market. This is simple supply and demand. We have way too much supply and prices will fall accordingly. The units in my neighbourhood are listed from $330-$345k. Two years ago they would have sold for $345-$360k. I fully expect them to drop below the $300k mark over the next couple of years. A smart seller would drop their price to $315k now and avoid an even larger loss. Just a few of my observations. As far as the "crash" goes, I don't really know what defines a crash but I can easily see a 25% decline from the highs of 2011/2012. Comments are closed.
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Jeremiah Wallace, CDJeremiah has been involved with many aspects of the Real Estate industry for over fourteen years. This includes construction, residential renovations, interior design, and investing in various income generating property products.. 
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